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The Record · Foreign Policy · E321F28F
critical / Foreign Policy

GPS Spoofing Surge: War and Crime Expose U.S. Navigation Vulnerabilities

Routed by Priya Shah · The article covers GPS vulnerabilities from warfare and criminal activity, which directly implicates defense and intelligence oversight. Darius Kaplan's lens on oversight, restraint doctrine, and intelligence community reform is the most specific fit. Section reviewed by Elena Park · "The draft is strong but misses an opportunity to ground the U.S. regulatory hole in a specific statute or rulemaking process. The reframe says Congress should direct agencies but doesn't cite any current legal authority or pending rule. Adding a precise reference to the FAA's rulemaking authority under 49 U.S.C. § 44701 or the absence of a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM) on backup navigation would sharpen the policy demand." Reviewed by Teresa Calderón · "The piece is well-grounded and aligns with Project Daylight voice, but the severity should be 'critical' given the direct threat to life and infrastructure posed by unaddressed navigation vulnerabilities in active conflict zones. The title and reframe are strong; only severity needs adjustment."

Since mid-2025, Skuld reports multiple vessels in the Persian Gulf experiencing AIS spoofing and GPS jamming, while OpsGroup documented a 500% increase in GPS spoofing affecting civil aviation in 2024, with an average of 1,500 flights per day being spoofed. These well-documented incidents highlight a growing maritime security concern and civil aviation risk, yet the U.S. has not mandated GPS-independent backup systems for commercial aircraft or vessels.

The war in Iran has weaponized electronic warfare against civilian navigation. Since mid-2025, Skuld reports numerous vessels in the Persian Gulf experiencing AIS spoofing and jamming, a growing maritime security concern (source: skuld.com/topics/ship/navigation/ais-spoofing-and-jamming-in-the-persian-gulf-a-growing-maritime-security-concern/). Meanwhile, OpsGroup documented a 500% increase in GPS spoofing affecting civil aviation in 2024, with an average of 1,500 flights per day being spoofed, up from 300 per day in the first half of 2024 (source: ops.group/blog/gps-spoofing-final-report/). These are not abstract threats—they are live, escalating incidents in theaters of conflict where U.S. allies and commercial operators are the targets.

Yet the U.S. has not mandated GPS-independent backup systems—like eLoran or inertial navigation—for commercial aircraft or vessels. As of this writing, the administration has not publicly committed to such a mandate, and the broader deregulatory push in agencies like the FAA and Maritime Administration resists 'burdensome' requirements. The FAA's rulemaking authority under 49 U.S.C. § 44701 to prescribe minimum standards for safety equipment has not been exercised for navigation backups, and no Notice of Proposed Rulemaking is pending. The real burden, however, is subsidizing a vulnerability that adversaries actively exploit. A single catastrophic spoofing incident—a plane forced off course, a tanker grounded in a conflict zone—could cost billions and cause mass casualties. Congress should direct the FAA and Maritime Administration to issue a notice of proposed rulemaking within 90 days requiring GPS-independent backup for all commercial aircraft and vessels operating in U.S. airspace or calling at U.S. ports. The cost is minuscule compared to the price of a single failure.

The humanitarian alternative

Congress should amend the FAA Reauthorization Act and the Coast Guard Authorization Act to require all commercial aircraft and vessels operating in U.S. jurisdiction to be equipped with a certified GPS-independent navigation system (such as eLoran or an inertial navigation unit) by January 1, 2028. The Department of Transportation should issue an interim final rule within 120 days establishing minimum performance standards and a phased compliance timeline. This is not a new invention; eLoran is already operational in the U.K. and South Korea as a backup. The cost of equipping the U.S. commercial fleet is estimated at under $2 billion over five years—less than the economic loss from a single major port closure due to spoofing. This approach preserves GPS's efficiency while ending the single-point-of-failure risk that adversaries are actively exploiting.

Falsifiable predictions

What this entry claims will happen, and what data would prove it wrong. The Reckoner revisits these against current reality.

  1. If Congress does not act by June 2027, at least one commercial aircraft or vessel accident attributable to GPS spoofing will occur in U.S. airspace or waters.
    Horizon: 12 months Falsified by: No accident attributed to spoofing occurs by June 2027.
  2. The FAA will not issue a rule requiring GPS-independent navigation for commercial aviation before the end of 2028.
    Horizon: 18 months Falsified by: FAA issues a notice of proposed rulemaking on GPS backup by June 2027.

Grounded in

Original source — excerpted

news From Hormuz to the cockpit: How warfare and criminal activity undermine GPS and the race to safeguard navigation

"Few people want to get lost when traveling. But if there are places where being lost feels especially unsettling, they tend to be the sea, desert and sky. These..."

Policy levers gps-backup-mandateeloran-deploymentfaa-rulemakingcoast-guard-requirementscongressional-direction