Cassidy's $1.5T Borrowed Fund Is a Risky Distraction from the Real Fix—Lifting the Payroll Tax Cap
Sen. Bill Cassidy's $1.5 trillion investment fund, borrowed from general revenue to invest in stocks, cannot fix Social Security's 2032 depletion deadline—raising or eliminating the payroll tax cap would cover the shortfall without borrowing or benefit cuts.
Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.), who faces a potential Trump-backed primary challenge after voting to convict in Trump's 2021 impeachment, has rolled out a $1.5 trillion Social Security investment fund that would borrow from general revenue to invest in stocks and bonds. The nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget warns this approach 'can't save Social Security' on its own, and the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College finds the plan 'unlikely' to achieve 75-year solvency. Meanwhile, the payroll tax cap remains at $184,500 for 2026—high earners stop contributing each January while low- and middle-income workers pay all year. The June 2026 Social Security Trustees Report projects the OASI trust fund will be depleted in the fourth quarter of 2032, not 2033 as earlier estimates suggested. Raising or eliminating that cap would cover the entire shortfall without adding to the national debt or cutting benefits.
Cassidy's plan is structurally inferior: it adds to the national debt, exposes retiree benefits to market volatility, and kicks the solvency deadline closer rather than addressing the root cause of inequitable revenue collection. The political context matters—Cassidy is acting under political pressure, giving his proposal limited leverage. The real fight remains between those who want benefit cuts (Project 2025's Heritage blueprint raises the retirement age and cuts COLAs) and those who want to close the revenue gap by taxing the rich. Cassidy's borrowed fund is a distraction from that key choice.
The humanitarian alternative
A straightforward and permanent fix is already on the table: gradually raise or eliminate the payroll tax cap so that high earners contribute on all of their wages, not just the first $184,500. The Social Security 2100 Act, for example, would subject earnings above $400,000 to the payroll tax, which CBO scores as fully restoring solvency through 2095. This approach requires no borrowing, no investment risk, and no benefit cuts. It is popular across party lines—polls consistently show 75%+ support for taxing the rich to protect Social Security. Congress should pass clean legislation that lifts the cap and dedicates the new revenue to the OASI trust fund, with no benefit cuts, no privatization, and no market exposure.
Falsifiable predictions
What this entry claims will happen, and what data would prove it wrong. The Reckoner revisits these against current reality.
- Cassidy's $1.5T debt-fund proposal will not pass the 119th Congress in its current form.
- The payroll tax cap will remain below $200,000 through 2027 absent a Democratic trifecta.
Grounded in
- Bill Cassidy pushes $1.5T investment plan to reform Social Security
- Social Security reform a priority for last days in office: Cassidy - CNBC
- What's the Big Idea? - Bipartisan Policy Center
- A Sovereign Debt Fund Can't Save Social Security-2026-03-24
- Cassidy-Kaine Proposal to Borrow for New Trust Fund Is a Bad Idea
- Proposals to Change Social Security
Original source — excerpted
news GOP senator forced out by Trump pushes $1.5 trillion investment for Social Security"Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.), who was defeated by a President Trump-backed challenger in a GOP primary earlier this year, is touting his proposal to reform Social ..."