How statehouse control rigs redistricting for a decade

According to NBC News' "From the Politics Desk" newsletter (June 2025, by Adam Edelman, https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/redistricting-raises-stakes-battles-statehouse-control-politics-desk-rcna345032), Democrats are shifting their focus to state legislative elections in key states this fall after losing the initial redistricting round. The article correctly frames this as a tactical pivot, but the deeper story is structural: partisan gerrymandering allows the party that controls statehouses to draw congressional maps that lock in power for a decade, effectively predetermining election outcomes before a single vote is cast. This process systematically dilutes the voting strength of communities of color and urban populations, who are often 'cracked' across multiple districts or 'packed' into a single district to reduce their influence.

The risk of this cycle is compounded by the Supreme Court's 2019 Rucho v. Common Cause decision, which declared partisan gerrymandering a nonjusticiable political question, effectively removing federal court oversight. As Sherrilyn Ifill notes in her Substack "The Two Section Twos" (https://sherrilyn.substack.com/p/the-two-section-twos), the VRA's Section 2 remains a critical tool against racial gerrymandering, but courts have been narrowing its reach. The alternative to this statehouse arms race is independent redistricting commissions, which have proven in states like Michigan and California to produce fairer maps with less partisan manipulation. Without such structural reform, the fight for statehouse control will simply perpetuate which party gets to rig the lines, leaving voters—especially voters of color and those in cities—permanently disadvantaged.